DROPSHIPPING - THE HOLDOUT EXPERIMENT PLANNER  (Chapter 4)

Does your advertising CAUSE the sales, or just stand next to them?
Write the prediction and the decision rule BEFORE you start, so the
result cannot be negotiated with.

EXPERIMENT ONE - THE GEOGRAPHIC HOLDOUT (the stronger evidence)
  Region paused (a meaningful share of orders): ______________________
  Paused from __________ to __________ (two weeks). Everything else
  identical: same creative, same budget elsewhere, same emails.
                       4-wk avg/wk      test avg/wk      change
  Region paused        $__________      $__________      ______%
  Rest of market       $__________      $__________      ______%
  Implied ad contribution in the region = rest-of-market change minus
  paused change: ______%   (book: +2% minus -18% = about 20%)

EXPERIMENT TWO - THE STEP CHANGE (only if no clean region exists)
  Hold total spend flat 2 weeks -> cut by half 2 weeks -> restore.
  Record weekly revenue, with organic and email separately.
  Weaker evidence: note that in your record so you don't later remember
  it as more certain than it was. Treat a small move as inconclusive.

CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE REVENUE ON PURPOSE? (cash-blocked stores - don't)
  [ ] Now, free: the one survey question (below)
  [ ] Now, free: unplanned holdouts already in your data (paused
      accounts, declined cards, budgets out at 4pm) - dates: __________
  [ ] Later, cheap: one small region, one week, once a buffer exists

  MY PREDICTION (a number): the paused region will move ______%
  MY DECISION RULE: "If advertising contribution comes out under
  ______, I will ____________________________________________."

  THE THREE OUTCOMES - decide now which action each gets
   Most of it was coming anyway -> shift spend from re-reaching people
     who know you toward reaching people who don't
   Roughly proportional -> measurement was about right; move on
   More than proportional -> ads feed your other channels; a license to
     spend more IF the cash and margin chapters support it
  Run it again in six months: the answer goes stale as the store grows.

THE ONE SURVEY QUESTION - order confirmation page, AFTER purchase
  "How did you first hear about us?"  (free text, or a short list +
  "other"). One question only. Added on: __________

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